To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

If you have read my previous blogs you know that I believe we are heading in to a dangerous time. I may even seem alarmist or even reactionary. I am not crazy I assure you though some may not weigh education heavily in their opinions of others opinions I am a college graduate (class of December 2006) and I have a BA in history from Fairmont State University in Fairmont, WV. I am not one to get alarmed by seeing something posted anonymously on the internet I generally track things down if I have a question to reliable sources and then make my own conclusions.

The issue of Peak Oil is often referred to as a conspiracy theory or something of the like. Peak oil as defined by Robert L. Hirsh – “means that the rate of world oil production cannot increase; it also means that production will thereafter decrease with time.” [i] World peak oil refers to an aggregate of all oil fields in the world- where as individual oil fields have a point at which they cannot increase production past a certain maximum this point may plateau and the field will continue producing that amount for some time but its production will eventually begin a terminal decline. That is a matter of physical fact for each oil field and in aggregate world oil production the only theory involved is when the peak will be reached. The world peak can be pushed forward in time as we find more oil reserves. But we have no guarantees that we will be able to expand our reserves at the same rate of demand or the same rate of decline.

The peak of world production will not necessarily be known until we actually pass the world peak of production- in other words we may only be able to know it has peaked in hindsight. The peak oil crisis itself may not begin at peak- it may happen sooner- as production becomes harder to increase in response to the increased pressure of demand. Some oil experts such as T. Boone Pickens believes “that oil has peaked at 85 million barrels in the world” and “We've got to other forms of energy.” The beginnings of the crisis may also be seen with the increasing cost to increase production because of the difficulty in finding oil and also the decreasing overall quality of the oil we refine. “Large producers, like Russia and Iraq, do not have Saudi Aramco's huge reserves or excess oil capacity to export, and promising new fields elsewhere are not expected to deliver enough oil to make up the difference”, according Jeff Gerth quoting oil experts on the July 18th 2008 New York Times online edition.

According to the Department of Energy, “non‐OPEC production fell far short of both expectations and consumption growth. Faster declines in older fields and delays in expansion projects have limited supply growth.”[ii], and for OPEC, “At these production levels, available surplus production capacity during the third quarter would be only1.2 million bbl/d, marking the third consecutive quarter that surplus capacity stood at or below 1.5 million bbl/d. All of this capacity is held by Saudi Arabia.”[iii] Even some who do not buy into the “peak oil theory” say that, “the aggregate global decline rate is 4.5 percent.” Their argument is that we will be able to make up for that decline with new fields coming into production. But according to Matthew Simmons, “Climbing to 75 – 77 MMB/D quickly becoming far-fetched dream.”[iv] World oil production reached 73.27 MMB/D in 2007.

This is not some crazy conspiracy theory- no black helicopters are involved and the megacorp fascists aren’t coming to get you. This is a real demonstratable issue.

[i] PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT, Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI February 2005.

[ii] Short‐Term Energy Outlook July 8, 2008 Release.

[iii] Ibid

[iv] THE PEAK OIL DEBATE: As The EIA Turns 30, EIA 2008 Energy Conference, Washington, DC, April 7, 2008, By: Matthew R. Simmons, Chairman Simmons & Company International EIA 2008 Energy Conference, Washington, DC April 7, 2008